August Summary
- Macro Backdrop: DXY hovers at 98, Gold breakout to an all-time high (ATH) is supportive of Bitcoin making new highs in Q4. We expect a bullish Q4.
- Price Action Highlights: A relatively quiet month with a modest 14% pullback in the BTC price from ATH. BTC dominance fell fast as ETH ran up 30% to current price and 48% to ATH. Many expect a large cap altseason driven by DATs.
- TradFi Listings - We continue to see more Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, though at this point, some DATs trade at a discount to net asset value (NAV).
- Trends on Solana are changing: Users interact with the Solana blockchain through Axiom as the clear winner on the trading terminal space with 50% of the market share. PumpSwap now processes ~50% of Solana DEX transactions.
- HyperLiquid USDH announcement.
- Key Upcoming Events: We expect dovish policy, with at least a 25-bps rate cut. Finally, with the deadline of the October 10 for the SEC’s decision on Solana Spot ETF, it may provide a very positive catalyst for a Solana and large cap alt-season.
A Favourable Macro & Summer Chop
BTC had a small pull back to $108k mark and is ranging up to $120k. It remains in a bullish trend, and we expect a new ATH in the coming months.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains sub-100, at 98, and suggests further weakness with its current downward trend. We expect the upcoming mid-September FOMC meeting to be dovish with a 25-bps cut expected.
This combination of a weaker dollar and expected falling interest rates creates a powerful tailwind for risk assets and inflation hedges like Gold and Bitcoin. We already see this play out with Gold up almost 10% since the beginning of August.
Direct Asset Treasuries
MicroStrategy pioneered the DAT model, using convertible notes, equity issuance, straight debt, and secured loans to accumulate Bitcoin—setting a template that has since inspired a wave of Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPEs) and Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) aimed at acquiring digital assets. These vehicles offer public equity investors indirect crypto exposure, and in just the past two months, their aggregate NAV has surged by $18B. Notably, ETH-focused DATs like BMNR and SBET have surpassed $10B in combined NAV within three months, driving substantial flows into Ethereum.
However, growing regulatory scrutiny is emerging. Nasdaq has begun pushing back on listed companies using equity raises to purchase crypto, now requiring shareholder approval before such moves. This marks a tougher stance on corporate crypto strategies and has triggered a compression in market NAVs, with many DATs now trading below the value of their underlying crypto holdings.
Solana Trends on Trading Platforms
We observe that 10-20% of order flow on Solana currently originates on Trading Apps such as Axiom. We can see that this is consistent over 2025. This means that Trading Apps are able to monetize a large share of the transaction flow on Solana.
Of the trading apps, ~50% of the flow is due to Axiom, the most popular memecoin trading venue. This historically was not the case since BullX and Photon have been displaced over 2025.
Axiom then routes this flow onwards to DEXs/AMMs, such as PumpSwap and Raydium. Interestingly, the origination of the order from Axiom to DEX means that they own a substantial portion of the Solana order flow and downstream revenue to DEXs based on what they show and their website. Moreover, Axiom’s token discovery and ranking algorithm with have substantial effect on where Solana flow is routed currently.
Pump continues to be the market leader with both launched tokens and swap volume. Below we see the share of Solana transaction and volume that are processed by all projects. PumpSwap has ~70% of volume and ~50% of transactions.
Where do we see opportunity in the Trenches?
Tokenized Equities. Currently, volume is sparse and we do not yet see much growth in the asset class yet. However, this is likely due to low liquidity and slippage.
With the rise of PropAMMs winning more DEX market share, we have seen spreads on SOLUSDC as low as 1bp, making it far more liquid than previously. These AMMs usually stick to major pairs and stablecoins due to not wanting to take inventory for memecoins and smaller cap tokens. With tokenized equities currently only being large cap Mag7 equites and indicines on-chain, we expect that PropAMMs will enter this asset class and make the tokenized stocks asset class much more liquid. We believe this to be the next big opportunity.
Hyperliquid’s USDH Vote
Stablecoins are undergoing institutional adoption, supported by an improving regulatory environment and a clear set of guidelines for issuers to follow. They are also becoming a strategic initiative for the U.S. Treasury, which seeks to proliferate and maintain dollar hegemony. Compliant, dollar-denominated stablecoins must hold a 1:1 backing—meaning every dollar issued onto a blockchain must be backed by $1 in cash or U.S. Treasury bills.
As such, the stablecoin business has historically been very profitable once scale is reached, since issuers earn yield on Treasury bills against a large capital base.
However, this model is coming under pressure as interest rates are set to drop, and improving regulations are increasing competition in the space. Issuers are now being forced to compete (within a compliant framework under the GENIUS Act) by directing some of that yield back to stablecoin holders.
This shift was highlighted recently when the Hyperliquid blockchain, which holds approximately 8% of the USDC supply, issued a request for proposal for a Hyperliquid-native stablecoin to be launched on the chain. The winner would be selected by a validator vote.
Several leading stablecoin issuers submitted proposals, including Paxos (with support from PayPal), Native Markets (backed by Bridge and Stripe), Ethena, Agora, Frax Finance, and Sky. Most of these proposals included commitments to return between 50–100% of the yield generated from the U.S. Treasury bills backing their stablecoins.
After a week of voting, the winner was Native Markets, which committed to immutably and programmatically buying the HYPE token with 50% of all revenues. With approximately $5.7 billion of USDC currently sitting on the Hyperliquid chain, if this supply were to shift over to Native Markets’ stablecoin, USDH, it would result in over $100 million in HYPE buybacks per year at current interest rates—rather than allowing that value to leak to Circle.
Market Catalyst: Solana ETF and other upcoming catalysts
September 16–17: FOMC Policy Meeting
- Market expectations are tilted dovish, with consensus leaning toward at least a 25-basis point cut.
- Fed commentary will be closely watched for signals of further easing into year-end, especially language around labour markets and inflation pressures.
- A softer tone could provide a supportive backdrop for both equities and crypto markets.
October 10: SEC Decision on Solana Spot ETF
- The SEC is set to issue a decision on the pending Solana Spot ETF filing.
- Approval could serve as a major positive catalyst, not just for Solana but for broader market sentiment toward large-cap altcoins.
- Even a delay or extended review may still keep Solana in focus as part of the broader trend toward mainstream adoption of crypto spot ETFs.
- On top of this, The Solana Foundation has begun supporting DATs, with the largest initiative announced by Forward Industries, Inc., which revealed a $1.65 billion private placement in cash and stablecoin commitments led by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital to launch a Solana Treasury Strategy under the chairmanship of Kyle Samani.
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